Interconnects

I expect rapid progress but not towards general superintelligence

作者认为，来自编码智能体等工具的基础设施与工程能力加速会在几年内让模型成为超人的分布式 GPU 工程师，从而让建模实验更容易，但不会改变模型的本质；他主张用"并行化的 AI 辅助语言建模"替代 RSI 与起飞叙事，认为即便在数学和编程之外没有经济价值超人的能力，技术仍将快速扩散进经济。

作者在 Interconnects 发表观点文章，回应工业界顶尖研究者普遍预期"AI 将在几年内在自己本职工作上超越自己"这一现象。他认为该预期源于模型基础设施与工程能力的快速加速，而非模型本质的跃变，并指出编码智能体让研究更易开展，预示"好想法比好执行更有价值"。他用"并行化的 AI 辅助语言建模"这一更务实的说法替代 RSI 叙事，强调进步主要来自对现有工具推理时算力的扩展，并判断即便在数学与编程之外没有经济价值超人的能力，工程加速仍会大幅推动技术向经济扩散。

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